Part 1 in The Kellogg Plan is DOA Series
By George McMillan, owner of McMillan Geostrategic Consulting
Introduction: Putin’s European Populist Election Strategy
I have been writing articles explaining the “role of energy” in economic development theory and geopolitical strategies since November of 2023 in the “Russian Natural Gas and Global Geopolitical Realignment” Series. The prior series should have been largely unnecessary, but the problem is that the University system is so overly compartmented that far too few people understand the role of energy in the context of political and economic development theory in a narrow sense and the role of energy and economic development theory in the context of Sea Power versus Land Power Grand Strategies in a global sense. In any case, now that I have laid the groundwork for understanding geostrategy and geopolitics through the lenses of energy , economic development, and land-power vs sea-power strategies, it is time to apply these previously covered frameworks to other contemporary topics.
As a quick refresher for those that have read the first series, essentially “energy” and its ability to power machines is “the multiplier” in the “multiplier coefficient” in economic growth theory. Therefore the role of “energy in society” is best understood in an integrated causal model of political development, economic growth, and geopolitical strategies (as explained in the prior series).
The more people that understand this confluence of interdisciplinary macro theories in terms of the Sea Power versus Land Power strategies, the easier it is to understand why Putin, Lavrov, and Medvedev are in no hurry at all to enter into discussions with Special Envoy Keith Kellogg concerning the cessation of hostilities in Ukraine.
The short answer should be obvious to any businessman, since Russia has no more meaningful commerce with the West to fuel its export-led growth import substitution industrialization investment strategy, there is simply nothing to talk to the West about. From an economic perspective, Russia needs to be talking to the other countries in Eurasia and engage in only limit discussions with the collective West - since they have proven to be counterproductive since the 1990s. A brief review of history and American foreign policy demonstrates why.
Post Cold War