Part 4 in The Kellogg Plan is DOA Series
By George McMillan, owner of McMillan Geostrategic Consulting
Understanding the Geostrategic Implications of the Russo-Ukraine War
Many people across social media platforms realized that Keith Kellogg’s name had been left off of President Trump’s list of advisors and envoys scheduled to meet in Moscow this week to discuss terms of ending the Ukraine war. Just about everyone was surprised except for the readers of the “Russian Natural Gas and Global Realignment” series, and those that follow my media appearances on Energy News Beat where I discuss current geopolitical topics in terms of Grand Strategies.
I said from the start that Kellogg’s plan was a complete non-starter because the EU and NATO were specifically moved Eastward to block all Russian trade from entering the European market. The EU and NATO achieved success when the last Gazprom contract expired on December 31st. From that point forward, all natural gas flowing into Europe by pipeline was going through Türkiye (a NATO state), which had a monopoly position - giving NATO control over energy to all of Europe; an excellent 'bargaining' position for advancing and maintaining core EU and NATO policies in both member and non-member states (as long as Türkiye would play along).
Energy prices soared during the Winter and the prices of energy that had been rising since the sabotage of Nordstream rose even more - further accelerating the industrial collapse of Europe. This was occurring to such an extent that the EU and the CDU/CSU considered renewing a contract with Gazprom in early February through the sole Nordstream pipeline that is still intact. An act of desperation to stave off complete economic collapse and reduce political blowback (we will see soon enough if they go through with it or if it was just rhetoric to appease voters).
However, the meaning of their proposal was clear. The EU, and the CDU/CSU party in Germany, needs affordable Russian natural gas from Gazprom to save the viability of their political institution; the population will not continue to tolerate rising energy prices and a collapsing industrial economy. This of course begs the question; why would Putin renew any Gazprom contracts with the EU and the CDU/CSU in Germany when it would be to Russia's advantage to do nothing and let the populist parties in Germany and across Central Europe rise up and replace the WEF-backed politicians that have been working to sabotage the Russian economy for decades?
After all, the populist parties want to rid themselves of the EU and NATO and form an energy partnership with Gazprom again. Why would Putin do something to prevent that from occurring?